Italy vs England: Euro 2020 Final preview, betting odds and expert predictions
Banking on Italy to open the scores and also win the tournament at the end.
Federico Chiesa at Euro 2020
Federico Chiesa at Euro 2020

England reached their first major final in 55 years and first ever Euro final after a 2-1 win over Denmark (AET) at Wembley.

Damsgaard opened the score with a fabulous 25-yard freekick in the 30th minute of the first half. England responded with an equalizer in the 39th minute. Kjaer scored an own goal from a cross by Bukayo Saka intended for Raheem Sterling. Harry Kane bagged the winner from the rebound of his missed penalty in the 104th minute of extra time.

But will such a performance be enough to lift the trophy on Sunday?

Italy vs England preview and key stats

England has had an incredible run at Euros so far. They have scored a total of 10 goals with 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 5 clean sheets, and 1 goal conceded. England’s form is one of the best in this year’s Euros with expected goals (xG) 1.51, 1.45, 1.49, 1.35, 1.98, and 2.73 respectively

Sterling has been outstanding in this tournament. So far he has four goals contributions — 3 goals and 1 assist. Harry Kane also has stepped up scoring a total of 4 goals in their last three games.

We can’t talk about England’s incredible run and ignore Italy. Italy has gone 31 games unbeaten which is a remarkable feat by the Azzurri’s. The Azzurri’s broke the record which stood for 82 years. They also set a new record for 15 consecutive game wins in Euros with qualifiers included.

Roberto Mancini’s side clinched its final spot after beating Spain 4-2 on penalties. Federico Chiesa, the Bianconeri winger opened the score in the 60th minute from a quick counter set up by Donnaruma. Morata equalized in the 80th minute. The game went to extra time, and the winner was decided by penalties. Jorginho scored the winning penalty with the “Jorginho hop, jump, and skip” technique after Morata’s penalty was saved.

On the other hand, Italy has had a spectacular run at Euros having scored 12 goals with 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 3 clean sheets, and 4 goals conceded. The Azzurri’s performance in the Euros has been immense so far with expected goals (xG) 1.91, 2.68, 2.05, 1.89, 1.73, 0.76 respectively.

Leonardo Spinazzola has been Italy’s best player followed by Jorginho. Spinazzola got injured in the game against Belgium but that doesn’t erase his fine performance. He had 88% passing accuracy, 3 clearances, 3 blocks, 1 tackle, and 27 balls recovered before his injury. Jorginho, who won the Champions League back in June, has been bossing the midfield with 93% passing accuracy, 7 tackles, and 40 ball recoveries.

Italy vs England H2H

England and Italy have gone head-to-head 27 times. England has won 8 times, Italy — 11 times, while both teams have drawn 8 times. Italy has a better win percentage. England has won just one of the last eight meetings between both nations.

That was back in August 2012, when Jermain Defoe scored a late goal in a 2-1 friendly win in Switzerland after Daniele De Rossi had equalized out Phil Jagielka’s header. Two months earlier, Italy had won the first meeting in a decade 4-2 on penalties in Kyiv.

This victory followed a goalless draw in the quarter-finals at Euro 2012, with Ashley Young and Ashley Cole both failing to net in the shootout. The Azzurri also came out top 2-1 in the 2014 World Cup Group D opener in Brazil. Mario Balotelli scored the winning goal after Daniel Sturridge equalized, leveling Claudio Marchisio’s effort.

Overall, Italy hasn’t lost in 20 matches while England hasn’t lost in 12 matches.

Italy vs England prediction, odds and betting tips

After a rollercoaster of exciting matches, it still feels mystifying to even think about the prospect of England at the Euro 2020 final — but here we are! Both teams have loads and loads of momentum behind them, and picking a winner is extremely difficult. It will surely be a stretched contest between both teams, most likely decided by just one goal.

Sunday’s contest really could go either way, but I’m backing Italy to have the final say. Even though England has the home advantage in terms of crowd and stadium, I’m backing the Azzurri’s to come out on top. The current odds:

  • England to win — 2.74
  • Draw — 3.12
  • Italy to win — 3.02

Italy has a better attacking stat at Euros than England. They scored a total of 12 goals while the latter scored 10 goals. The Azzurri attempted a total of 108 shots in 6 games while England attempted just 58 shots in 6 games. This shows how dangerous Italy can be in the opposition half.

Italy isn’t subjected to only attack. The partnership of Bonucci and Chiellini has been top-notch. Although England has kept more clean sheets — 5 out of 6 games — Italy has had more tackles (74), more balls recovered (249) and more clearances completed (71). As opposed to England’s tackles (53), balls recovered (222), and clearances completed(93). The partnership of Maguire and Stones has been great so far. But I’ll pick Italy’s centre-back partnership.

The Azzurri have had a better midfield dominance. They have 7 yellow cards while England has 5. Italy has suffered more fouls (80) and conceded 72 fouls while England has suffered 70 fouls and conceded 58. You’ll need your defenders to be at their best when playing against the Azzurri’s, who haven’t lost in 20 matches.

In the England camp, all players are fit to play. In the Italian team, Spinazzola is injured. The full-back ruptured his left Achilles tendon during Italy’s win over Belgium and will be out for a few months. This was confirmed by Roma on Monday. All others are fit for the Euro 2020 final.

I’m banking on Italy to open the scores and also win the tournament at the end.

Bet on Italy to score the first goal with the odds of 2.33 (+133 American)

Bet on Italy to lift the Euro 2020 trophy with the odds of 2.12 (+112 American)

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