Argentina vs Brazil: Copa America 2021 Final preview, betting odds and expert predictions
Lionel Messi has 34 career trophies — and the 35th will be at stake in the Copa America 2021 Final in Rio de Janeiro.
Lionel Messi at Copa America 2021
Lionel Messi at Copa America 2021

Lionel Messi has another opportunity to win a trophy with Argentina. In 149 appearances he scored 76 goals and bagged 53 assists. He has lost 4 finals with the national team up to date: a World Cup final and 3 Copa finals. Despite this, Messi has 34 career trophies — and the 35th will be at stake on Saturday, 10 July 2021 local time. Start is at midnight the next day by GMT.

Argentina vs Brazil preview and key stats

Argentina has another golden opportunity to make history. They have lost two consecutive Copa finals and can turn it around by winning this year’s final.

The road to the final was not an easy one for Lionel Scaloni’s squad. They clinched their final spot after defeating Colombia 3-2 in penalties. Both teams played to a 1-1 draw for 90+4 minutes. Lautaro Martinez scored the opener in the 7th minute of the first half, Luis Diaz equalized in the 61st minute of the second half. Emiliano Martinez was clutch as he saved 3 penalties which handed Argentina the win.

Argentina has played 6 matches at Copa America. They scored a total of 11 goals with 4 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses, and 3 goals conceded. Their expected goals (xG) for the games played are 2.92, 0.81,1.21, 4.79,3.77, and 2.45 respectively. Lionel Messi is currently the top goalscorer and assists provider with 4 goals and 5 assists.

The defending champions Brazil have sealed their spot in the Copa America final too. Brazil, who won the 2019 Copa America, reached its second consecutive final after a 1-0 win over Peru. Lucas Paqueta scored the winning goal for Brazil in the 35th minute of the first half

Brazil has played 6 games in the tournament so far: 4 group matches,1 quarter-final, and 1 semi-final. The Selecao have scored 12 goals. There have been 5 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, and 12 goals conceded. Brazilian squad’s performance in the tournament has been brilliant with expected goals (xG) of 4.81, 3.60, 2.82, 1.20, 2.61, and 2.57 respectively. Neymar is Brazil’s best player with 2 goals and 3 assists. Lucas Paqueta is the joint top goalscorer with 2 goals.

In the Argentina’s camp, all players are fit to play. In the Brazilian’s, Felipe is injured. He will miss the Copa final, while Gabriel Jesus is handed a 2-match suspension for a red card.

Argentina vs Brazil H2H

Argentina and Brazil have gone head-to-head staggering 111 times. Argentina has won 40 times, and Brazil has won 46 times, with 25 draws. Brazil has a better win percentage than Argentina. In their last 5 meetings, Argentina has only won twice while Brazil won 3 times.

Argentina vs Brazil prediction, odds, and betting tips

For the first time since 1993, Copa America is not hosted by two guest countries. The competition consists of 10 teams, 2 groups, and 28 fixtures. Columbia and Peru have played the bronze final. Columbia came back from a 0-1 deficit and won the match 3-2. Cuadrado equalized and Luis Diaz scored 2 goals to secure the win.

The Copa America final is going to be an intense game. Any of the teams that want to win it must be tactically sound and play to their maximum strength. Any mistake can come at high cost to either team. Argentina seeks to end their 28 years trophyless run and Messi hopes to win his first major international trophy. Brazil has home advantage as this year’s Copa America is hosted by Brazil. Also, Neymar aims to win his first Copa America with the Selecao.

The current 1x2 odds are:

  • Argentina to win: 3.92 (+292 American)
  • Draw: 3.20 (+220)
  • Brazil to win: 2.23 (+223)

Argentina’s attack has 40 shots on target at the Copa, followed by Selecao’s 36 shots on target. They have scored 11 goals while Brazil has scored 12 goals. The teams have goals per game ratios of 1.8 and 2.0, respectively.

Selecao created 24 big chances, which is the most. The centre-back partnership of Thiago Silva and Marquinhos have been splendid, conceding only 2 goals, the least in the competition.

Argentina has 13 yellow cards and 0 red cards. Brazil has 8 yellow cards and 1 red card. Brazil has had more tackles 68, more than any other team at Copa America 2021.

From the overall statistics, the Selecao have been the better team at the tournament. We cannot rule out Argentina who has been second in statistics too. It’s logical to expect both teams to score. They both have great attackers and midfielders.

The Copa final is going to be an epic one with loads of anxiety and excitement. I’m predicting Argentina to win, with both teams to score.

Bet on Both Teams To Score — Yes with the odds of 2.35 (+135 American)

Bet on Cup Winner — Argentina with the odds of 2.43 (+143 American)
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