Nations League 2022-23: Portugal vs Spain prediction and betting tips (September 27)
Portugal hosts Spain in the final round of the group stage matches. Both teams hold first and second place in the group table. The winner of this match gets an automatic ticket to the semifinals.
Asensio must pick up his scoring boots for this tie.
Asensio must pick up his scoring boots for this tie.

Portugal and Spain draw swords in the Round 6 of the 2022-23 Nations League group stage matches.

The match is scheduled to start at 6:45 p.m. GMT on Tuesday, 27 September 2022. The match venue is Estadio Municipal de Braga, Braga, Portugal.

Latest odds on betting sites

Portugal to win odds are priced at 2.30 (+130 American; 13/10 Fractional), the odds for a draw are priced at 3.20 (+220; 11/5), while Spain to win odds are priced at 3.20 (+220; 11/5).

The chances of these outcomes are as follows: Portugal — 40%, draw — 30%, Spain — 30%.

Latest betting odds on Portugal vs Spain (27 September 2022):

  • Over 2.5 goals — 2.10 (+110; 11/10)
  • Under 2.5 goals — 1.71 (-140; 5/7)
  • Asian handicap (0.0, -0.5) on Portugal — 2.00 (+100 American; evens)
  • Asian handicap (0.0, +0.5) on Spain — 1.91 (-110; 10/11)
  • Both teams to score (Yes) — 1.86 (-115; 20/23)
  • Both teams to score (No) — 1.83 (-120; 5/6)

Match preview and statistics

Portugal has three wins, a draw and a loss in the previous five games. They are top of the group table with 10 points and a +9 goal difference. The Selecao beat Czech Republic 4-nil in their last match.

Diogo Dalot gave them the lead in the 33rd minute. The cross came in from Bruno Fernandes, but no one could finish it the first time. Rafael Leao sent it again into the box, and Dalot buried it into the back of the net.

Fernandes doubled the lead on the stroke of halftime. He got in between two defenders and struck the ball into the net. Mario Rui got the assist with the perfect cross into the box. Patrik Schick couldn’t pull one back as he missed the penalty and blew it wide.

Dalot made it 3-nil, scoring his second of the game in the 52nd minute of the second half. He made space for himself before firing the shot from distance into the bottom left corner. Fernandes with the assist.

Diogo Jota scored the fourth for Selecao in the 82nd minute. Following the cross from the corner, Cristiano Ronaldo hit the ball with his head, after it bounced, Jota scored with a header at the near post.

Team statistics: 56% possession, 16 total shots, five big chances, five shots on target, 500 accurate passes, 87% pass accuracy, seven fouls committed and five corners.

Portugal team news: Joao Felix and Raphael Guerreiro are doubtful for the match.

Spain suffered their first defeat in nine matches in the last game. The loss saw them drop to second in the group table with eight points and a +2 goal difference. They lost 1-2 to Switzerland in the fixture.

Manuel Akanji opened the scoring in the 21st with a long header from outside the six yard box past the outstretched arm of Simon, following the corner-kick. Ruben Vargas got the assist for the delivery.

Jordi Alba pulled one back for La Roja in the 55th minute with a clinical finish high to the roof of the net. Assisted by Marco Asensio, who laid the pass off to the full-back. Breel Embolo scored the winner for the Swiss team. The Spaniards conceded again from a set-piece.

Team statistics: 75% possession, eight total shots, one big chance, four shots on target, 712 accurate passes, 89% pass accuracy, nine fouls committed, one offside, and five corners.

Spain team news: No player is injured or suspended for this match.

Portugal vs Spain H2H

Spain and Portugal have drawn the previous five matches in regular time. They played a 1-1 draw in the last meeting.

Lineups and key players

Portugal projected starting lineup:

  • Rui Patricio
  • Diogo Dalot
  • Ruben Dias
  • Danilo Pereira
  • Mario Rui
  • William Carvalho
  • Ruben Neves
  • Bruno Fernandes
  • Bernardo Silva
  • Rafael Leao
  • Cristiano Ronaldo

Bruno Fernandes is the key player to watch out for. He had a very good performance in their last match against the Czech Republic, with two-goal contributions. Fernandes is expected to play at a top level against Spain in their next fixture. Goal involvements will be appreciated from the Man U star.

Spain projected starting lineup:

  • Unai Simon
  • Jordi Alba
  • Pau Torres
  • Eric Garcia
  • Cesar Azpilicueta
  • Sergio Busquets
  • Gavi
  • Carlos Soler
  • Marco Asensio
  • Ferran Torres
  • Pablo Sarabia

Marco Asensio is the key player to watch out for. He managed to avoid a bad game in their last game against Switzerland and provided an assist to their goal. Asensio must pick up his scoring boots for this tie. Goals are much needed from the attacker.

Prediction and betting tips

Portugal is in good form ahead of their fixture. They are coming off a big win into this tie. The momentum is good as well. Spain lost for the first time in nine matches. They lost to Switzerland in the last match.

Both teams have drawn five straight minutes after 90 minutes. La Roja need to win if they want to qualify to the semifinals, while a draw will be just fine for the Selecao. Prediction for this match is under 2.5 goals. Portugal has the home advantage and will do its best to defend the top spot in front of the home crowd.

Betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals

Odds: 1.71 (-140 American; 5/7 Fractional)

Portugal — Spain
Won
Under 2.5 goals
1.71
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