Nations League 2022-23: Italy vs Germany prediction and betting tips (June 4)
Italy host Germany in the first round of the Nations League. Gli Azzurri have lost two important games out of the last three played and want to turn things around in this match with a win.
Federico Bernardeschi (Italy) needs to step up and play better
Federico Bernardeschi (Italy) needs to step up and play better

Italy play Germany in Round 1 of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League group stage matches.

The match is scheduled to start at 6:45 p.m. GMT on Saturday, 4 June 2022. The match venue is Stadio Renato Dall’Ara, Bologna, Italy.

Betting tips and match predictions for the Italy vs Germany (June 4) game are available in this article. Next is a preview of the latest betting odds, key stats, team news, and projected starting lineups.

Italy vs Germany latest odds on betting sites

Italy to win odds are priced at 2.80 (+180 American; 9/5 Fractional), the odds for a draw are priced at 3.50 (+250; 5/2), while Germany to win odds are priced at 2.40 (+140; 7/5).

The chances of these outcomes are as follows: Italy — 34%, draw — 28%, Germany — 38%.

Latest betting odds on Italy vs Germany (4 June 2022):

  • Over 2.5 goals — 1.91 (-110; 10/11)
  • Under 2.5 goals —1.91 (-110; 10/11)
  • Asian handicap (0.0, +0.5) on Italy — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
  • Asian handicap (0.0, -0.5) on Germany — 2.10 (+110; 11/10)
  • Both teams to score (Yes) — 1.71 (-140; 5/7)
  • Both teams to score (No) — 2.00 (+100; evens)

Italy vs Germany match preview and statistics

Italy just lost the Finalissima to Argentina on Wednesday, June 1. They now have only one win, two draws and two losses in their last five matches.

Gli Azzurri had 44% possession, seven total shots, created no big chances, 380 accurate passes, 88% pass accuracy, 13 fouls committed, three offsides, three corners and three yellow cards. It was a poor performance from the European champions who got outplayed by Copa America champions.

Lautaro Martinez opened the scoring in the 28th minute with a tap in from a low cross by Lionel Messi. Angel Di Maria doubled the lead on the stroke of halftime with a chip over the goalie, assisted by Martinez with a sublime pass. Paulo Dybala scored the third as he smashed the ball low off the post into the bottom corner, assisted by Messi.

Italy team news: Domenico Berardi, Ciro Immobile, Federico Chiesa, Gaetano Castrovilli, Rafael Toloi and Nicolo Zaniolo are sidelined due to injuries.

Germany haven’t lost in nine matches, with eight wins and a draw. They played a 1-1 draw with the Netherlands in their last match, a friendly.

Thomas Muller opened the scoring in the 45+1 minute, just before halftime. He pounced on the loose ball and slammed his strike into the top left corner from inside the box. Steven Bergwijn pulled one back in the 68th minute with a powerful shot past Neuer into the net, assisted by Denzel Dumfries with a headed pass.

Top stats: 62% possession, 14 total shots, zero big chances, five shots on target, 530 accurate passes, 89% pass accuracy, 14 fouls committed, one offside, four corners and two yellow cards.

Germany team news: Marc-Andre Ter Stegen and Julian Draxler were dropped from the squad and won’t participate.

Italy vs Germany H2H

Both teams have faced each other 35 times, Italy have 16 wins while Germany have 11 wins with eight draws. They played a goalless draw in their last meeting, a friendly match.

Italy vs Germany lineups and key players

Italy projected starting lineup:

  • Gianluigi Donnarumma
  • Emerson
  • Alessandro Bastoni
  • Leonardo Bonucci
  • Cristiano Biraghi
  • Sandro Tonali
  • Marco Verratti
  • Nicolo Barella
  • Federico Bernardeschi
  • Lorenzo Insigne
  • Gianluca Scamacca

Federico Bernardeschi is the key player to watch out for. He needs to step up and play better in this opener against the Germans. Goal involvement will be crucial to get the team back to winning ways. Bernardeschi should be able to turn things around.

Germany projected starting lineup:

  • Manuel Neuer
  • Thilo Kehrer
  • Antonio Rudiger
  • Nico Schlotterbeck
  • David Raum
  • Joshua Kimmich
  • Jamal Musiala
  • Serge Gnabry
  • Thomas Muller
  • Leroy Sane
  • Timo Werner

Thomas Muller is the key player to watch out for. The attacking midfielder has to pick up his scoring boots ahead of this match. Muller scored the opener in their last match against the Netherlands which was a friendly.

Italy vs Germany predictions and betting tips

The Italians are looking to get back to winning ways following the poor results in previous matches, which include missing out on the World Cup and also losing the Finalissima to Argentina. A win in this home game will motivate them in the upcoming matches.

Hans-Dieter Flick’s team have been solid in the past games, with eight wins and a draw in nine consecutive matches. They have good momentum ahead of this match and should be able to avoid a loss as things stand.

Both teams played a goalless draw in their last meeting which was far back in 2016. A couple of things have changed since then so we can’t rely solely on this. Predictions for this match are Italy to win or draw, and under 2.5 matches.

The Blues will have the home advantage and it would be difficult for them to lose three out of four games. The team should be able to improve in this home game. Germany are very good but a draw can do it for them.

Italy have scored just four goals in their last five matches, going goalless in three. Germany as well when they faced the Dutch team could only net a goal. Not expecting more than two goals in this match up.

Betting prediction: Italy to win or draw (1X)

Odds: 1.53 (-188 American; 25/47 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Under 2.5 goals

Odds: 1.91 (-110 American; 10/11 Fractional)

Football UEFA Nations League . Group stage. Round 1
Italy — Germany
Not settled
Italy to win or draw (1X)
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