EuroBasket 2022: Slovenia vs Poland basketball prediction and betting tips (September 14)
Slovenia have won seven out of eight matches against Poland. Who will qualify for the next stage?
Ponitka was the best scorer for his team in the last H2H match against Poland.
Ponitka was the best scorer for his team in the last H2H match against Poland.
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

The Slovenia vs Poland fixture in the quarter-final of the 2022 EuroBasket will take place on Wednesday, 14 September 2022, starting at 6:30 p.m. GMT. The venue is Mercedes-Benz Arena, Berlin.

Latest odds on betting sites

Slovenia are priced with the odds of 1.08 (-1250 American; 2/25 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 88%. Poland come with the odds of 8.60 (+760; 38/5) to win this match. The chances of their victory are around 12%.

The latest odds for Slovenia vs Poland (September 14):

  • Over 175.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Under 175.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+13.5) points on Poland — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
  • Asian handicap (-13.5) points on Slovenia — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
  • Over 28.5 points Luka Doncic — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
  • Over 14.5 points by Mateusz Ponitka — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)

Match preview and statistics

Slovenia pulled Belgium (88-72) down in the 1/8 finals.

Slovenia attacked perfectly in this match. They made 69 shots and finished 42% of them successfully. They had 53.7% and 92% accuracy in two and one-point shots, respectively. Both teams were absolutely equal playing under baskets. They completed 12 rebounds in defence and 28 in attack, each. Also, each team made 14 assists and completed two block shots. However, Slovenia lost the ball only six times and completed eight interceptions, whereas Belgium had 13 losses and three interceptions.

Luka Doncic absolutely destroyed all his rivals in that fixture. He finished it with a +33 efficiency provided by 35 received points, five rebounds, five assists and four steals. The second best scorer of this match received only 16 points, which is more than two times worse than Luka’s result.

Slovenia have received a total of under 93.5 points in six of the last seven matches. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 2.05 (+105; 21/20) in this match.

Poland won over Ukraine (94-86) in the most recent fixture.

Poland beat Ukraine in three out of four quarters, but were defeated in the second one. They made 71 shots and converted 31 of them. Poland had much worse accuracy than Ukraine in two-point shots, but they finished 36.7% and 84% of three and one-point shots, successfully. Their defence was not perfect. Poland completed two block shots, seven interceptions and lost the ball 10 times, whereas Ukraine completed five block shots and intercepted the ball nine times.

Mateusz Ponitka was MVP of the match. He scored 22 points, completed nine interceptions and made six assists, but he was not the best scorer. A.J. Slaughter received 24 points for his team in that match. Vyacheslav Bobrov scored 14 points and made four rebounds to finish the match with a +17 efficiency.

Mateusz Ponitka has received less than 14 points in four out of six matches in this tournament. A total of under 14.5 points by him comes with the odds of 1.90 (-111; 9/10) in this match.

Slovenia vs Poland H2H

Slovenia beat Poland (112-77) in their last head-to-head match. Aleksander Sekulic’s men dominated in the attack by making approximately 19 shots per quarter. Also, they won space under baskets by completing 14 rebounds in attack and 30 in defence, whereas Poland completed only five rebounds under the rivals’ basket and 22 under their basket.

Luka Doncic and Klemen Prepelic were the first and the second best scorers in the match with 18 and 17 points, respectively. Mateusz Ponitka scored 16 points and won seven rebounds.

Lineups and key players

Slovenia projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Aleksei Nikolic
  • Shooting guard: Klemen Prepelic
  • Small forward: Vlatko Cancar
  • Power forward: Luka Doncic
  • Center: Mike Tobey

Luka Doncic was the best scorer in the previous stage and in the last H2H game against Poland. Also, he has scored 118 points in the last three matches, which is an unbelievable result.

Poland projected lineup:

  • Point guard: A. J. Slaughter
  • Shooting guard: Michal Michalak
  • Small forward: Mateusz Ponitka
  • Power forward: Aleksander Dziewa
  • Center: Aleksander Balcerowski

Mateusz Ponitka was MVP in the most recent match by finishing it with a +26 efficiency. Also, he was the best scorer for his team in the last match against Slovenia.

Prediction and betting tips

Slovenia with Luka Doncic is unstoppable. They have won five out of six matches in this tournament and lost a single one only by four points. Doncic have dropped at least 35 points in each of the last three matches and was the best scorer in the last H2H match against Poland by winning it with a 112-77 score.

Poland have not met strong rivals in this tournament apart from Serbia in the group stage. They were lucky to qualify for this stage, but they were defeated by Serbia and Finland by 27 and 30 points, respectively, which can not be called confident play. Also, they have a streak of four losses against Slovenia. I believe that Slovenia will win all quarters in this match.

Besides, under 14.5 points by Mateusz Ponitka looks safe too. The same outcome has played out in five of the last seven matches. Also, he has scored 13.2 points per match on average in this tournament.

Betting prediction: Slovenia to win all quarters – Yes

Odds: 4.00 (+300 American; 3/1 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Under 14.5 points by Mateusz Ponitka

Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; 1/1 Fractional)

Basketball. Quarter-final
Slovenia — Poland
Slovenia to win all quarters – Yes
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