EuroBasket 2022: France vs Italy basketball prediction and betting tips (September 14)
France have not lost any of the last five matches being the favourites. Will Italy break this streak to qualify for the semi-final?
Gobert was the best scorer in the last game.
Gobert was the best scorer in the last game.
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

The France vs Italy fixture in the quarter-final of the 2022 EuroBasket will take place on Wednesday, 14 September 2022, starting at 3:15 p.m. GMT. The venue is Mercedes-Benz Arena, Berlin.

Latest odds on betting sites

Italy are priced with the odds of 2.80 (+180 American; 9/5 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 30%. France come with the odds of 1.50 (-200; 1/2) to win this match. The chances of their victory are around 70%.

The latest odds for France vs Italy (September 14):

  • Over 160.5 points — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)
  • Under 160.5 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+5.5) points on Italy — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
  • Asian handicap (-5.5) points on France — 2.05 (+105; 21/20)
  • Over 28.5 points Simone Fontecchio — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
  • Over 16.5 points by Evan Fournier — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)

Match preview and statistics

France beat Turkey (87-86 OT) in the Round of 16 to qualify for the current stage.

France played aggressively. They made 72 shots and finished 35 of them successfully. They converted 55% of two-point shots, whereas their accuracy on one-point shots was equal to 64%, which was a disappointing result. They completed 33 rebounds in defence and let Turkey win only six rebounds in attack. Also, France made 22 assists and nine interceptions, but they lost the ball 21 times.

Tuncer Bugrahan was the best scorer in this match. He finished it with 22 points, but won only three rebounds and made four assists. Rudy Gobert received 20 points for his team, completed 17 rebounds and made two assists. Evan Fournier and Thomas Heurtel were the second and third best scorers for France with 13 points each.

Rudy Gobert has received more than 14 points in three of the last four matches. He is priced with the odds of 1.90 (-111; 9/10) to score over 13.5 points.

Italy destroyed Serbia (94-86) in the most recent game.

Italy attacked confidently and played well in long ranges, but were much weaker than Serbia under baskets. The Light Blues made 67 shots and scored 31 of them. They converted 42.1% of three-point shots, whereas Serbia’s ratio is 5.6% lower. However, Serbia won 14 rebounds in attack and 25 in defence, while Italy made six rebounds less. Gianmarco Pozzecco’s men completed six block shots and 11 interceptions, which is a confident result.

Nikola Jokic was on another level in this match. He scored 32 points, whereas the second best scorer had only 22 points. Also, Jokic finished the match with 13 rebounds, which is 33% of all rebounds in his team. Marco Spissu was the best scorer for Italy, with 22 points and +29 efficiency.

Italy have won the first half in five of the last seven matches. They are priced with the odds of 2.45 (+145; 29/20) in the next game.

France vs Italy H2H

France smashed Italy (100-68) in the last H2H fixture. They won all quarters, apart from the second one, which was finished with a 26-26 score. France and Italy made 56 and 57 shots, respectively, but the accuracy of Vincent Collet’s men was 13.1% greater.

Rudy Gobert was the fourth best scorer in his team with 10 points and six rebounds, whereas Evan Fournier and Thomas Heurtel scored 13 points each. Nicolo Melli was the best scorer for Italy with 13 points and seven rebounds.

Lineups and key players

France projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Thomas Heurtel
  • Shooting guard: Evan Fournier
  • Small forward: Terry Tarpey
  • Power forward: Guerschon Yabusele
  • Center: Rudy Gobert

Rudy Gobert started this tournament slowly with 11 and eight points in the first and second matches, respectively. However, he has scored 65 points in the last four matches and was the best player in the most recent game.

Italy projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Niccolo Mannion
  • Shooting guard: Stefano Tonut
  • Small forward: Simone Fontecchio
  • Power forward: Nicolo Melli
  • Center: Amedeo Tessitori

Nicolo Melli was the third best scorer in the most recent match. He scored 21 points and finished that match with a +22 efficiency. In the last H2H match against France, he scored the greatest number of points for his team.

Prediction and betting tips

France have won Italy in the last 11 H2H matches in a row. In the most recent match, they absolutely destroyed The Light Blues by winning the match with a 32-point difference. They won the battles under both baskets and controlled the ball on the field better. Also, France had much higher accuracy in three and one-point shots.

Italy have shown confident play in this tournament. They defeated Serbia in the Round of 16 and were close to beating Greece in the group stage, but lost that match with a four-point gap. Overall, their performance was not worse than France’s, which lost two matches against Slovenia and Germany. Italy have won the first half in five of the last seven matches. Also, Asian handicap (+1.5) points on Italy in the first half, has played out in two of the last three H2H matches. This outcome looks safe.

Betting prediction: Asian handicap (+1.5) points on Italy (1st half)

Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; 1/1 Fractional)

Basketball. Quarter-final
France — Italy
Asian handicap (+1.5) points on Italy (1st half)
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