Australian Open 2022: Shapovalov vs Nadal prediction and betting tips (January 25)
Both tennis players have streaks of seven victories and both have won three out of six H2H matches. Who will win this close battle?
Rafael Nadal won over Shapovalov in the Round of 16 of the 2021 ATP Rome
Rafael Nadal won over Shapovalov in the Round of 16 of the 2021 ATP Rome

The Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal fixture in the quarter-finals of the 2022 Australian Open will take place on Tuesday, 25 January 2022, starting at 03:00 a.m. GMT. The venue is Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne. Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal (January 25) prediction and betting tips can be found below.

Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal (January 25) latest odds on betting sites

Denis Shapovalov is priced with the odds of 3.00 (+200 American; 2/1 Fractional) to qualify for the semi-finals, which equals an approximate probability of 33%. Rafael Nadal comes with the odds of 1.40 (-250; 2/5) to win this match. The chances of his triumph are around 67%.

The latest odds for Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal (January 25):

  • Over 38.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
  • Under 38.5 games — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)
  • Asian handicap (-1.5) sets on Nadal — 1.80 (-125; 4/5)
  • Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Shapovalov — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)
  • Asian handicap (-4.5) games on Nadal — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+4.5) games on Shapovalov — 1.95 (-105; 19/20)

Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal (January 25) match preview and stats

Denis Shapovalov sensationally won over Alexander Zverev (6-3, 7-6, 6-3) in the Round of 16.

Zverev had two breakpoints in the first game of the first set and was close to win it but he did not convert them. The tennis players traded winning service games, and Denis converted the first breakpoint in the second return game. Then they performed confidently in their games and did not give each other breakpoint opportunities.

Shapovalov started the first game of the second set with a 40-15 score and converted the third breakpoint. However Zverev leveled the score in the fourth game by converting the second breakpoint. Alexander finished one more breakpoint successfully in the eighth game to reach a 5-3 score. In spite of this, Denis won two games in a row to level the score. In tie-breaks, both players performed equally, but Shapovalov made one mistake less to win one more set.

The Canadian tennis player started the last set with a 3-0 score. He converted a single breakpoint in the second game. Then both tennis players did not give each other breakpoint opportunities, and Zverev did not have a chance to come back.

Denis Shapovalov has won the first set in six of the last seven matches. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 2.30 (+130; 13/10) in this match.

Rafael Nadal beat Adrian Mannarino (7-6, 6-2, 6-2) in the previous stage.

Both players performed confidently in the first set. They did not give each other breakpoint opportunities to a 5-5 score. In the 11th game, Adrian had a breakpoint but Rafa saved it. We saw absolutely equal play in tie-breaks, but Nadal finally won three points in a row after a 14-13 score to finish the set.

Rafael Nadal converted the second breakpoint in the first game. Then he performed confidently in service games and started the fifth game with a 40-0 score. He converted the third breakpoint. Then Rafa did not give Adrian breakpoint opportunities. He made one double fault in the set.

The first game in the last set was very close. Nadal started it with a 40-15 score, but Mannarino leveled it. Rafa finally converted the fifth breakpoint. Then Adrian won the next return game to nil. The third game was similar to the first. After that Nadal won one more return game and did not give Adrian a chance to level the score.

We have seen a total of under 9.5 games in the second set in four of the last five games with Rafa participating. The same total is priced with the odds of 2.00 (+100; 1/1) this time.

Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal H2H

Rafael Nadal won over Shapovalov (3-6, 6-4, 7-6) in the Round of 16 of the 2021 ATP Rome. He won 11 out of 16 service games and 59% of points. Rafa won 27% and 43% of return games and points, respectively. He saved 50% of breakpoints and converted 27% of them. Besides, Nadal made only two double faults in three sets.

Denis won 11 out of 15 and service games 31% of return games. He saved 10 out of 15 breakpoints and converted 50% of them. Shapovalov made five double faults in this match. He won 57% of service points and 41% of return.

Denis Shapovalov vs Rafael Nadal (January 25) betting tips and prediction

These tennis players look equal in this match. They showed confident performances during previous stages, and both performed well in H2H fixtures. Shapovalov won over Alexander Zverev in the previous stage, and his rivals were overall stronger than Rafa’s. In spite of this, Shapovalov showed a performance as terrific as Nadal’s. I believe that this fixture will not be finished in three sets. Also, the asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Denis Shapovalov looks safe.

Betting prediction: Over 3.5 sets

Odds: 1.60 (-167 American; 3/5 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Shapovalov

Odds: 2.00 (+100 American; 1/1 Fractional)

Tennis Australian Open 2022 . Men. Singles. Quarter-finals
Denis Shapovalov — Rafael Nadal
Over 3.5 sets
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