The Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal fixture in the semi-final of the 2022 ATP Indian Wells will take place on Saturday, 19 March 2022, starting at 9:30 p.m. GMT. The venue is Indian Wells Tennis Garden, Indian Wells. Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal (March 19) semi-final prediction and betting tips can be found below.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal latest odds on betting sites
Rafael Nadal is priced with the odds of 1.65 (-154 American; 13/20 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 60%. Taylor Fritz comes with the odds of 2.50 (+150; 3/2) to win this match. The chances of her triumph are around 40%.
The latest odds for Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal (March 19):
- Over 23.5 games — 2.05 (+105; 21/20)
- Under 23.5 games — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
- Asian handicap (-1.5) sets on Nadal — 2.50 (+150; 3/2)
- Asian handicap (+1.5) sets on Alcaraz Garfia — 1.50 (-200; 1/2)
- Asian handicap (-2.5) games on Nadal — 2.05 (+105; 21/20)
- Asian handicap (+2.5) games on Alcaraz Garfia — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal match preview and statistics
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia destroyed Cameron Norrie (6-4, 6-3) in the quarter-final.
Cameron Norrie converted the first break point in the first game of the first set and won the second game. Then Alcaraz Garfia won two games to level the score and the players traded winning third service games. Norrie reached a 40-30 score in the next game and converted one more break point. However, Carlos Alcaraz Garfia won three remaining games to win the set. He created five break point opportunities and converted three of them.
In the second set, the tennis players traded first service games and second return games. Alcaraz Garfia won the fifth game and converted the first break point in the sixth one. Cameron Norrie converted one out of two break point in the next game, but Carlos won the last two to finish the set. He made one double fault and converted all three break points.
We have seen a total of under 19.5 games in the last six matches with Alcaraz Garfia’s participation. The same total comes with the odds of 3.60 (+260; 18/5) this time.
Rafael Nadal won over Nick Kyrgios (7-6, 5-7, 6-4) in the last game.
Rafa confidently won the first game of the first set, but Kyrgios won the next three games. Then the tennis players traded winning service games and did not give each other break points to a 4-5 score. Nadal reached a 40-30 score and converted a break point to level the score. His performance in tie-breaks was fantastic. He won seven points in a row to finish it with a 7-0 score.
In the second set, we saw absolutely equal play. Both tennis players did not give each other break points in 11 games and were not able to win more than 30 points in most of their return games. Nick Kyrgios received a single break point in the 12th game and converted it to level the score.
The Australian tennis player created two break points in the first return game of the last set, but Rafa saved both. Nadal reached a 40-30 score in the fifth game, but his rival did not let him convert two break points. Despite this, the Spanish tennis player finished a single break point in the next return game successfully.
Rafael Nadal has won seven of the last nine matches to nil. The same result is priced with the odds of 2.50 (+150; 3/2) in this match.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal H2H
Rafael Nadal pulled Carlos Alcaraz (6-1, 6-2) down in the 2021 ATP Madrid. Nadal won 88% out of eight service games and five out of seven return games. He won 71% and 63% of service and return points. Rafa saved two out of three break points and converted five out of seven created breakpoint opportunities.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia made three double faults. He was able to win only two service games and one return. Alcaraz Garfia won 29% of service points and 13% of return. He converted one out of three break points and saved two out of seven breaks.
Carlos Alcaraz Garfia vs Rafael Nadal predictions and betting tips
Carlos Alcaraz has significantly improved his play during 2021 and 2022 seasons. He has beaten Matteo Berrettini and Jannik Sinner at the start of the current and end of the previous season, respectively. In this tournament, Alcaraz Garfia has met Cameron Norrie, Gael Monfils and Roberto Bautista Agut and has absolutely destroyed them. His current form is fantastic, and he is able to win a set against Nadal, but no more. The match in three sets would be his best result.
Rafa has a streak of 20 victories and three tournaments won. He beat No 1 twice during this streak and eliminated a lot of strong rivals from these tournaments. In the last H2H game against Alcaraz, Nadal showed breathtaking play. I believe that he will qualify for the next stage.
Betting prediction: Rafael Nadal to win
Odds: 1.65 (-154 American; 13/20 Fractional)
Betting prediction: Over 2.5 sets
Odds: 2.40 (+140 American; 7/5 Fractional)